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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Mon, October 22nd, 2018 - 7:00AM
Expires
Tue, October 23rd, 2018 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
CNFAIC Staff
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line


WELCOME to the 2018/2019 winter season!!

After a long summer break, the CNFAIC is getting ready for another fantastic winter season! Doors will open at the Avalanche Center on October 29th, with all staff returning. We will be issuing intermittent snow and avalanche updates as conditions warrant through mid-November. Daily avalanche forecasts are planned to begin during Thanksgiving weekend – unless we are blessed with abundant early season snowfall demanding an earlier start.  

Early season folks:  Please send us your snow/avalanche reports so we can post them on our observation page! Simply click ‘submit observation’ under the Observation tab above. This is a huge benefit for the community and our forecasters.    A few folks have been up to Hatcher Pass sliding on the snow, see the most recent reports  HERE. Make sure to like us on Facebook and follow us on Instagram for our most up to date information.

Remember, early season avalanches happen.
A very shallow snowpack with rocks protruding can give us a false sense of security. As we embark on this season, let’s remember to be aware and prepared, returning to the parking lot and our family and friends is #1.

This is a great time to make sure your avalanche rescue gear is in order. This means:
–   Your shovel and probe assemble properly and no parts are rusted and/or worn out.
–    Your beacon has fresh batteries and your terminals are not corroded.
–   Brush up on how to use your avalanche beacon – turn it on, does it pick up another beacon properly and vice versa?  
–   And, don’t forget to check out the  upcoming avalanche courses  in your area!  

Mark your calendars:   EVENTS ARE APPROACHING QUICKLY!


Friday November 9th

6th Annual Southcentral Alaska Avalanche Workshop

9am – 4:30pm,  Alaska Pacific University’s Atwood Bldg.  Join us for the 6th annual SAAW. Alaska’s Southcentral avalanche community will team up with snow professionals from around the region, Southeast Alaska and Idaho to share knowledge and stories. This is a ‘must attend’ event for avalanche professionals and an excellent way for recreational backcountry users to delve into advanced avalanche topics!  

Pre-registration closes on Thursday, November 8th at 6pm. After that, you can get tickets for $20 at the door between 8:30 and 9am.  Lunch, coffee, snacks and a post workshop ‘beer social’ is included. Full schedule and registration  HERE.

Thursday, Nov 15th

Beartooth CNFAIC Fall Fundraiser:   Hope for Snow!

8 – 11pm, Beartooth Theater Pub & Grill.    A slightly different format this year with short stories and live music. SNOW STORIES by:

· Wendy Wagner
· Roman Dial
· Blaine Smith

Live Music by HOPE SOCIAL CLUB!

Tickets are $20 and will be available starting Oct. 23 at the Beartooth website and box office.  

Wednesday, Nov 21st

Snowmachine throwback film fundraiser – “2 Stroke Cold Smoke”!

7 – 10pm, 49th State Brewing Co Anchorage. Kick off the riding season, connect with CNFAIC and learn about snowmachine specific avalanche awareness/course opportunities with a ‘throwback film’ night!!    

$20 tickets available soon online and at local snowmachine dealerships. More details coming soon!

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Photo:   Tincan webcam image from AK DOT Turnagain Pass RWIS road camera.
Looking Northeast from Turnagain Pass on Saturday, October 20th.

 

Photos:   Seattle Ridge webcam on Turnagain Pass – looking South toward Johnson Pass.  

October 20th – Friday’s storm brought snow to 2,300′                                 October 21st – warm weather melting mid-elevation snow

 

Mon, October 22nd, 2018
Alpine
Above 2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Observations
Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass
Date Region Location
11/16/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Common
11/14/23 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst/Magnum
11/14/23 Turnagain Observation: Seattle Ridge
11/13/23 Turnagain Avalanche: Tincan Trees
11/12/23 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst
11/12/23 Turnagain Avalanche: Goldpan – avalanche
11/11/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Common
11/11/23 Turnagain Observation: Taylor Pass – Sunburst
11/10/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan
11/10/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Trees
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.