Mon, December 05, 2016 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Mon, December 5th, 2016

Alpine

Above 2,500'

2 - Moderate

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

More info at Avalanche.org

Clear skies are allowing folks to venture further into the backcountry and people are choosing to go into steeper terrain. Remember the buried surface hoar as you get into areas that haven’t been ridden. These ‘less traveled slopes’ are the most likely places to trigger an avalanche. The layer of buried surface hoar (from Nov. 16) sits roughly 1-2+ feet below the surface and it is still a concern. Observers have been still been able find this buried persistent weak layer in snow pits throughout the region and it is still reactive in stability tests. It’s a complicated situation since slopes that have avalanched are generally stable, but those that have not remain unstable. Telling between the two may be difficult as subsequent snow and wind have covered up the evidence. Continue to be on the lookout for signs of instability, cracking and collapsing. A group on Seattle Ridge reported large whumpfs when they were traveling off the main skin track. Manage your terrain and use safe travel protocols. Always ask the question what if this slope slides? What are the consequences? Where will I end up?

Expose one person at a time
Group up in safe zones
Have an escape route planned
Watch your partners and where other groups are around you

Snow pit from November 3rd illustrates the buried surface hoar issue. Photo: Wendy Wagner

Avalanche Problem 2

Wind Slabs

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

More info at Avalanche.org

It is hard not to feel and/or see the effect that winds that blew after Wednesdays storm had on the snow once you get into any open terrain. Wind slab avalanches remain a concern on all exposed slopes where winds have formed drifts and slabs. There is a lot of wind effected snow out there and many of the slabs found over the weekend felt stubborn and hard to move. On Friday, one party found a touchy slab on a steep North facing shoulder of Cornbiscuit that released on a ski cut. This is a good example of not letting your guard down even if you see no signs of instability. A big thanks to the party that wrote in, you can read their account HERE. The wind slab may also overlay the buried surface hoar and triggering may release a deeper more dangerous slab if you find the wrong spot. Be wary of hard over soft snow, hollow sounds and steep slopes with obvious depostion in the start zone.

National Avalanche Center example of Cross Loading

Photo from Eddies yesterday shows wind loading and a small pocket of wind slab. Photo: Andy Moderow

Weather

Mon, December 5th, 2016

Yesterday skies were clear and it was cold. Temperatures hovered around 0F and light N winds added to the overall chill. Overnight temperatures in the valleys dropped into the negatives while ridgeline weather stations showed temperatures rising into the teens due to an inversion. Winds were light and variable.

Today will be mostly clear with clouds building in the evening as the next pulse of moisture moves over the area. Temperatures will be in the low teens and East winds will be light. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Temperatures will be in the single digits but rise overnight. Winds will continue to be light and easterly.

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers, temperatures in the low 20Fs and light east winds. The NWS forecast describes the overall pattern for the remainder of the week as cold and dry due to a blocking pattern that will keeping the cold air mass over us.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	-1	0	0	22
Summit Lake (1400′)	-3	0	0	4
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	1	0	0	11

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	-2	NNE	7	17
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	7	variable	3	13

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South	H Thamm
05/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side	Amy Holman
05/12/24	Turnagain	Observation: Warm up Bowl	Tony Naciuk
05/07/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs	A S
04/29/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs	Tully Hamer
04/27/24	Turnagain	Observation: Johnson Pass	Noah Mery
04/23/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side	Travis SMITH
04/21/24	Turnagain	Observation: Bertha Creek	Anonymous
04/20/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Spokane Creek	Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster
04/16/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Krueger / Matthys Forecaster

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