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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Sat, April 19th, 2014 - 7:00AM
Sun, April 20th, 2014 - 7:00AM
John Fitzgerald
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is LOW above and below treeline.   Very low volume wet loose avalanches and cornices are the snowpack issues to be aware of today.

Special Announcements

Turnagain Pass and Snug harbor are the only remaining areas on the Chugach National Forest open to motorized use.   Check the bottom of the page for the latest updates on motorized access.


Advisories will be issued 5 days per week – Wednesday to Sunday – through April 27th.

Sat, April 19th, 2014
Above 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

Dissipating cloud cover and cooler overnight temps have allowed the snow surface to once again refreeze.  The snowpack has now been through many periods of melt/freeze.  This equates to generally stable snow in most areas.  The exceptions to this are the following:

Wet Loose Avalanches
It will be possible for humans to trigger very low volume wet sluffs in very steep terrain today.  Slopes over 40 degrees either in the lower elevations or on sunlit aspects in the higher elevations are the main areas where this is a possibility.  The volume of any potential sluffs will be low and slow moving.  

We have yet to see any significant cornice falls in the area.  Despite this, it is still worth being aware of and staying away from them.  Know where your are in relation to cornices and always hedge your bets by giving them a wide berth.  Warm temperatures and sunshine will help to destabilize cornices today.

With temperatures expected to reach into the high 40s/low 50s F at 1,000′, it will be important to anticipate the snow surface becoming unsupportable in the lower elevations later in the day.  Planning your route back to the road with this in mind will minimize the potential of injury due to difficult travel.

Sat, April 19th, 2014

In the past 24 hours a trace of new snow has fallen above 2,000′, with light rain (.1″) below 2,000′.   Ridgetop winds have averaged 13 mph out of the East (max gust of 35 mph).   Temperatures have been mild with the Sunburst station (3,812′) showing an average of 24.7 degrees F.   The Center Ridge SNOTEL site (1,880′) showed a max reading of 44 F.

Today expect clearing skies through the morning hours.   Temperatures at 1,000′ will reach into the high 40s F.   Winds will be light out of the Northeast at 5 mph.

A series of disturbances tracking to the South will not be strong enough to bring moisture our way for the next several days.   High pressure will try to establish itself over the area, bringing generally dry conditions and mild temps through the weekend and into the early part of next week.

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass
Date Region Location
11/16/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Common
11/14/23 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst/Magnum
11/14/23 Turnagain Observation: Seattle Ridge
11/13/23 Turnagain Avalanche: Tincan Trees
11/12/23 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst
11/12/23 Turnagain Avalanche: Goldpan – avalanche
11/11/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Common
11/11/23 Turnagain Observation: Taylor Pass – Sunburst
11/10/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan
11/10/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Trees
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.