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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Sat, February 25th, 2012 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, February 26th, 2012 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Kevin Wright
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Good morning. This is Kevin Wright with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Saturday, February 25th at 7am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

BOTTOM LINE

The avalanche danger is LOW this morning. Watch for a rapid and significant increase in the avalanche danger tonight as heavy snow and high wind enters the region. Until the weather changes, the avalanche danger will be limited to isolated pockets such as unstable cornices and sluffing on very steep terrain.

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

The last several days have been stable through Turnagain Pass. That trend will continue this morning, and possibly into the afternoon until the weather takes a turn. Get it while the gettin’s good, but keep an eye out for the big weather change.

As long as the wind stays calm, the avalanche danger should be isolated to manageable problems. Low avalanche danger does not mean no avalanche danger. Don’t drop your guard because of this forecast, and be ready for a possible change by sometime this afternoon.

Cornices have grown into huge overhanging lobes, especially on some West facing aspects. We recommend keeping your distance from these features and approaching with caution.

Loose snow sluffing may be an issue, but only in very steep terrain. This issue has diminished over the last several days. For the most part, skiers and snowmachines are floating over the top 6-12 inches of loose snow. The surface snow has enough density that it isn’t as prone to sluffing or entrainment issues as it was 3 days ago. You can still expect it on slopes steeper than 45 degrees.

Areas outside the core zone of Turnagain Pass may have local variations in the avalanche danger. Check out the photos/observations page for pictures of large avalanches from the last week. As always, evaluate the conditions based on what you find.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

We haven’t had significant snowfall since Monday. Over the last few days we’ve had light wind and below freezing temperatures. Temperatures this morning are into the mid to low single digits at 3000 feet, but should rise quickly this morning.

Today, partly sunny skies in the morning will gradually digress into snow showers in the afternoon. The real weather change will occur tonight, when a large front sweeps across the region from the West. This system is expected to bring heavy snow and high wind late tonight and Sunday morning. A blizzard warning has been issued for Sunday starting at 3am.

CNFAIC Weather Page and the NWS forecast

Wendy will issue the next advisory Sunday morning. If you get out in the backcountry we want to know what you are seeing. Please send us your observations using the button at the top of this page or give us a call at 754-2369. Thanks and have a great day.

Sat, February 25th, 2012
Alpine
Above 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Observations
Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass
Date Region Location
11/16/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Common
11/14/23 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst/Magnum
11/14/23 Turnagain Observation: Seattle Ridge
11/13/23 Turnagain Avalanche: Tincan Trees
11/12/23 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst
11/12/23 Turnagain Avalanche: Goldpan – avalanche
11/11/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Common
11/11/23 Turnagain Observation: Taylor Pass – Sunburst
11/10/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan
11/10/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Trees
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.