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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Wed, November 16th, 2011 - 7:00AM
Expires
Thu, November 17th, 2011 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Kevin Wright
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

Good morning, this is Kevin Wright with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Wednesday, November 16th at 7am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

You only have to drive through the Pass to see the glide activity for yourself. The full depth avalanches are breaking to the ground in a number of common areas including Sunburst, Cornbiscuit, and Seattle ridge. The danger of glides is difficult to quantify, but we think it deserves more than a low danger rating. We recommend backcountry travelers steer clear of the cracks and avoid spending excessive time below them. If you were unlucky enough to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, a glide avalanche would have serious destructive potential.

Strong wind over the weekend was loading slopes near the ridges. Initially people were finding them reactive with shooting cracks and the occasional small pocket releasing under the weight of a person. Over the last few days these slabs have hardened up and become much less reactive. It is now unlikely to be triggered by a skier or boarder, but it’s worth thinking about in steeper high consequence terrain.

The areas most people will want to travel over the next few days will be in the trees below the wind blasted zone. Above 2500 feet yesterday we found variable wind crust and raised tracks. Below tree line the snow is still generally soft and carvable.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER ROUNDUP

Cold, cold, cold. Many of the weather stations this morning are reading negative temperatures. Exposed areas along Turnagain arm are windy today, but Turnagain Pass is reading only light to moderate winds. It looks like we are stuck in this high pressure for the rest of the work week, with snow possible starting Saturday.

CNFAIC Weather Page and the NWS forecast

WEBSITE CHANGES and INFO

We have expanded our photos page to include observations from both the CNFAIC forecasters as well as the public. Please keep checking this page as there will be lots of information to glean. Thanks to all the observations submitted so far!

Check out the training and calendar page on our site. Here you will find avalanche awareness talks and CNFAIC Staff education information. Including a link to an application for a snow safety scholarship offered by the Friends of the CNFAIC – a great opportunity! You must be a member but it’s donation based with a $10 minimum.

A huge thanks to all our current members for your support! The Friends could not do it without you and us without the Friends.

I will issue the next advisory Friday morning at 7am. If you get out in the backcountry give us a call at 754-2369 or send us your observations using the button at the top of this page. Thanks and have a great day.

Wed, November 16th, 2011
Alpine
Above 2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Observations
Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass
Date Region Location
11/16/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Common
11/14/23 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst/Magnum
11/14/23 Turnagain Observation: Seattle Ridge
11/13/23 Turnagain Avalanche: Tincan Trees
11/12/23 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst
11/12/23 Turnagain Avalanche: Goldpan – avalanche
11/11/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Common
11/11/23 Turnagain Observation: Taylor Pass – Sunburst
11/10/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan
11/10/23 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Trees
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.