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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at all elevations today. Human triggered avalanches 1-3′ deep are likely especially in wind loaded areas. Winds during the last storm were out of the east but are currently blowing out of the northwest, so wind slabs could exist on a variety of aspects. Very large and destructive avalanches in a layer of weak sugary snow buried 3-6′ deep are also likely and could be triggered by a person or a smaller avalanche. These avalanches have the potential to be triggered remotely (from above, below, or to the sides of steeper terrain) and could release much wider than expected. Conservative terrain selection and being aware of steeper slopes above you is essential to manage these dangerous avalanche conditions.
Summit Lake: Despite not getting much new snow during the last storm a recent human triggered avalanche on a layer of buried facets indicates that the potential still exists for triggering avalanches on older buried weak layers. Summit area could see stronger winds today that may build new wind slabs.
Seward/Snug Harbor: We received a report of frequent collapsing/whumphing and a small remote triggered avalanche in Seward yesterday (see recent avalanches). In areas that received strong winds and have a weak existing snowpack human triggered avalanches are very likely today. These could be 1 to 3′ deep in the most recent storm snow or release on buried weak layers 3 to 6′ deep resulting in very large and destructive avalanches.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Small human triggered avalanche in Summit Lake area. Photo Mr. Savoona 12.10.21
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
As the skies start to clear today it may be tempting to venture into more consequential avalanche terrain, but with moderate winds from 10-25 mph and lots of light snow available for transport we expect wind slabs to be sensitive to human triggering anywhere from 1 to 3′ deep. We are entering another period of outflow winds from a cold airmass in the interior, and during our last weather pattern like this the Seattle Creek drainage saw higher winds than the rest of Turnagain Pass. In addition we are still very concerned about the potential for triggering very large avalanches 3 to 6′ deep on a layer of buried facets (see problem 2 for more details). Conservative decision-making and terrain selection is essential today, keeping slope angles low and being aware of potential active wind loading along ridgelines.
During the last storm (Thursday through Friday morning) 12 to 24″ of snow fell with wind speeds from 20-35 mph out of the east. We saw evidence of wind transport during a brief break in the clouds yesterday that indicates wind slabs are likely to be lingering along ridelines and in cross loaded gullies. Today the winds are forecast to blow out of the northwest and could create new wind slabs in different terrain features compared to the winds during the storm. Look for fresh cornices, texture on the surface of the snow, hollow feeling snow, and smooth pillow features to identify areas with wind slabs.
Wind affected snow along the ridgeline of Cornbiscuit yesterday. Photo 12.10.21
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Human triggered avalanches on a layer of facets buried 3 to 6′ deep are still likely today and would result in very large and destructive avalanches. This layer has been the culprit of many near misses in the past week and has shown the potential for remote triggering and very wide propagation. We heard reports of collapsing and whumphing across the region yesterday which indicate that this buried weak layer is still reactive. During a brief break in the cloud cover we saw a few potential new avalanches on this layer at about 2800′ on the north faces of Magnum and Cornbiscuit. The only way to manage this type of avalanche problem is through conservative terrain selection and avoiding areas underneath steep slopes.
Snowpack structure for faceted weak layer. All the snow from the past several weeks acting as a slab on top of a thick layer of sugary facets on top of a firm bed surface. Photo 12.8.21
Yesterday: The latest round of snowfall stopped by 9am with no additional accumulation throughout the day. Winds were light at 5-10 mph out of the NW with gusts into the 20’s in the morning. Cloud cover remained in the northern portion of Turnagain Pass throughout the day but broke up in the southern portion of the pass in the afternoon. Temperatures stayed in the teens through the day but dropped into the single digits overnight.
Today: Temperatures should remain in the single digits and trend towards negative single digits this afternoon. Winds will remain predominantly out of the northwest but increase to moderate wind speed in the range of 10-25 mph. Cloud cover should diminish throughout the day today.
Tomorrow: Cold temperatures and moderate winds out of the northwest look to be the norm for Sunday and Monday as well, with lows potentially dropping into the negative teens. On Monday night the winds look to shift to the southeast and temperatures should warm up a bit.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 20 | 0 | 0 | 84 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 17 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 16 | 0 | 0 | 53 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 8 | NW | 7 | 24 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 13 | NA | NA | NA |
*Seattle Ridge weather station is rimed and not reading wind speed or direction currently.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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