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Happy Thanksgiving!!!
The avalanche danger is MODERATE above 1000′ today. It is possible to trigger a wind slab 1-2′ deep. Especially at higher elevations near ridgelines, convex rollovers, and gullies. Conditions could change quickly if the winds pick up because there is a lot of dry snow on the surface that could be blown into fresh wind slabs. There is also a weak layer of sugary faceted snow on the ground that could produce larger avalanches above 3000′. The avalanche danger is LOW below 1000′ today.
Turnagain Pass Motorized Use: The Chugach National Forest has issued a closure order for the Turnagain Pass motorized area due to inadequate snow cover to protect forest resources. Currently around 20″ snow exists outside the motorized parking lot at the Pass. See the ‘Riding Areas’ tab below for the latest updates.
Hatcher Pass Thanksgiving Forecast: HPAC is issuing a special forecast for the holiday, if you are headed up to the Talkeetna’s check out the forecast here.
Avalanche Education Scholarships: Get your application in NOW! The Friends of the Chugach Avalanche Center hosts two different types of scholarships; the deadline is December 1st. Several opportunities are available. See details HERE. Help us spread the word!
New this season: we are adding the avalanche problem rose to our icons. We’ve posted a quick guide on how to use it (and its limitations) here.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Seattle Ridge
Despite pretty good visibility yesterday we only observed 1 slab avalanche in the recent storm snow. This was located along Seattle Ridge between Main Bowl and Pyramid Peak at about 3000′ on a W aspect. From afar the avalanche appeared to be a wind slab that released along a steep convexity on a wind loaded aspect. It was a soft slab that ran about 150′ vertical feet.
Soft slab avalanche from wind transported new snow along Seattle Ridge. Approximate location of crown shown with red line and avalanche debris shown with blue line. Photo 11.23.22
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Thanks to the 12-14″ of new snow yesterday we have lots of loose snow at the surface available for wind transport. At higher elevations the new snow is dryer and we saw some evidence yesterday that it had been transported by the wind along exposed ridgelines. However, the lack of avalanche activity observed yesterday indicates that the new snow is bonding well to the old snow surface and wind slabs are isolated to more exposed features at higher elevations. Winds are expected to remain light today, but new slab avalanches could develop very quickly if you find yourself travelling in an area where wind speeds are strong enough to transport snow.
To assess the potential for wind slabs you can use small test slopes to check whether the surface snow is cracking or feels like it is not bonded well to the snow underneath. Wind slabs could fail at the interface with the old snow (1 – 2′ deep) or you could see wind slabs failing within the new snow (0.5 – 1′ deep). You are most likely to find a wind slab on slopes below ridgelines, on steep convex terrain features, or in cross loaded gullies. Look for signs of wind transport on the snow surface to show you which aspects are likely to be wind loaded in the area you are travelling.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
At the very bottom of the snowpack we have been tracking a layer of facets that produced large avalanches during multiple storm cycles in early November. Now that the snowpack is quite wet and includes multiple thick melt freeze crusts below 3000′ the likelihood of triggering an avalanche on this weak layer is pretty low. In the alpine above 3000′ those melt freeze crusts are much thinner or don’t exists at all and it would still be possible to trigger an avalanche on this persistent weak layer. Your ability to impact this layer and release a large avalanche is more likely in areas with a thinner snowpack, like the Johnson Pass area or Crow Pass area. Outside our forecast zone, Summit Lake is another area that is more likely to harbor this week layer longer due to their thinner snowpack.
Since the snowpack is only about 3 feet deep right now it is not too hard to dig down to the ground and take a look at this weak layer before you commit to big terrain features in the alpine. An extended column test or compression test are good ways to check whether this weak layer is reactive in the location you are travelling. On Tuesday on Magnum at 3200′ Andrew had this layer fail in his snowpit tests (see ob here), so it is probably still reactive in some areas.
You can see the video from Seattle Ridge here if it does not load in your web browser.
Yesterday: Snowfall tapered off yesterday morning after dropping about a foot of snow in Turnagain Pass. The snow was moist at the road elevation (1000′) and got progressively dryer at higher elevations. Cloud cover lifted in the late morning and stayed overcast for the rest of the day. Wind speeds decreased as the snowfall stopped with averages dropping from the teens to single digits and remaining in the single digits overnight. Wind gusts yesterday morning reached around 30 mph but decreased in the afternoon to around 15 mph. Temperatures remained relatively warm yesterday with averages in the mid to upper 20s. Overnight temperatures dipped slightly to 20-25 degrees F.
Today: We should see light winds out of the NW during the morning with averages in the single digits and gusts into the mid teens. Winds will switch to the SE in the afternoon and remain light. Cloud cover will increase in the afternoon and evening with a chance of light snowfall later in the day. Snow accumulation is expected to be less than 2″ and fall mostly later in the day and overnight. Temperatures should remain in the low to mid twenties or upper teens throughout the day.
Tomorrow: After a brief pulse of snowfall overnight with little accumulation the wind direction will switch back to NW on Friday and wind speeds will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph. Cloud cover should decrease as the winds switch to NW and no new snowfall is expected later Friday or Saturday. Temperatures are expected to decrease Friday and continue to cool down reaching single digits throughout the weekend.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 29 | 4 | 0.3″ | 24 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 24 | 1 | 0.1″ | 12 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 24 | 1 | 0.1″ | 21 |
Bear Valley (Portage) (132′) | 29 | 0 | 0″ | – |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 24 | WNW | 10 | 31 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | – | – | – | – |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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