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The avalanche danger will start out LOW at all elevations, but will rise to MODERATE above 2500′ this afternoon as winds pick up ahead of a storm system entering the area. In the afternoon and evening fresh wind slabs up to a foot deep are likely to build at upper elevations in shaded areas with dry snow available for wind transport. Until the winds start to increase ‘normal caution’ avalanche conditions will persist, which includes being aware of wet loose avalanches, cornice fall, and glide avalanches. Wet slab avalanches are also possible today if we get enough sun and warm temperatures to melt surface crusts.
FRIDAY AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: A storm entering the area tonight is expected to bring anywhere from 12-24″ of snowfall and strong winds from Thursday night through Saturday afternoon. We are expecting an increase in avalanche danger on Friday with the new snow and wind arriving.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Crown from a very large wet slab up Gulch Creek near the Hope Y observed from the road. Photo 4.20.22
Wet slab avalanche occurred after the glide avalanche had already released on a south aspect at around 3000′ near the Crow Pass trailhead.
Large glide avalanche up Twentymile drainage on a south aspect. Photo 4.20.22
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The glorious spring weather we have experienced so far this week is on it’s way out today and increasing winds and scattered snow showers are expected to impact the area starting this afternoon. The increasing winds today have the potential to build fresh wind slabs at upper elevations, especially on north facing terrain where dry snow remains on the surface and will be more prone to wind transport. Wind slabs up to a foot deep are the primary avalanche problem today and will be possible for a person to trigger along ridgelines, cross loaded gullies, and convex roll overs, but they won’t be an issue until the winds start to pick up this afternoon. Until then the same normal caution avalanche conditions we have experienced so far this week are expected throughout the first half of the day.
Cornices: The warm temperatures and sunshine this week are weakening cornices and the potential for part of a cornice to randomly fall off or be more prone for human triggering from the ridgeline exists. Be aware if cornices are getting direct sun above you and try to avoid spending too much time underneath them if that is the case. Give them a wide berth if you are travelling along ridgelines today.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
We have received two observations of wet slab avalanches over the past two days that appear to have released in the November facets above the Halloween crust, but we have not had a close enough look to know for sure (observations here and here). These avalanches are very large and destructive and we know that this weak layer and crust combination exists throughout the region and is especially prominent in areas with a thinner overall snowpack depth (e.g. Crow Pass, Summit Lake). Wet slabs are unpredictable but require melt water pooling in a weak layer in order to release, which means they are most likely to fail during times of high melt from the sun and warm temperatures. The weather moving in today might save us from having enough melt for more wet slabs to release, but it is still important to be aware of the potential for these very large avalanches.
The best way to avoid wet slab avalanches is to pay attention to how much the surface snow is melting during the day and move to another aspect if you start sinking in more than ankle deep or start to see wet loose avalanches releasing naturally.
Wet Loose Avalanches: Depending on the timing of the wind and cloud cover moving in today there could be enough time for melt freeze crusts to soften enough to cause wet loose avalanches in steep south facing terrain. Yesterday on the south face of Cornbiscuit my boots were sinking in about ankle deep at 2 pm and the potential for wet loose off the steeper south facing rocky terrain seemed to just be starting. If the clouds move in earlier in the day or the winds pick up and keep the snow surface cool we might not see much melt on the surface crusts.
Rollerballs and wet loose avalanches on the south face of Cornbiscuit. Photo 4.20.22
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Yesterday: Mostly clear skies and calm to light winds. Temperatures reached up to the low 40’s F at lower elevations and stayed in the low 30’s F to upper 20’s F at upper elevations.
Today: Clouds are expected to move into the area from the southeast today, along with precipitation in coastal areas in the afternoon and evening. Winds are also forecast to pick up this afternoon with averages of 10-25 mph by this evening and gusts up to 40 mph. Scattered showers are possible during the day producing little accumulation and snowfall in earnest is expected to start late Thursday night. Snow line should be 700-900′ on Thursday.
Tomorrow: Snowfall is expected to start overnight tonight and continue throughout the day on Friday and Saturday before tapering off Saturday evening. The most intense snowfall is forecast on Friday and storm totals from Thursday through Saturday could range from 12-24″. Snowline is expected to be between 1000-1300′ on Friday and then move up to 1500-1800′ on Saturday. Strong winds will accompany the snowfall, with averages in the 30-50 mph range at upper elevations and gusts up to 75 mph.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 34 | 0 | 0 | 103 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 30 | 0 | 0 | 35 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 34 | 0 | 0 | NA |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 25 | E | 5 | 12 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 29 | SE | 3 | 9 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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