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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 1000′. It is possible a person can trigger a very large avalanche 3-6′ deep or deeper on a weak layer of snow that was buried two weeks ago. We’ve seen multiple avalanches triggered remotely from low angle terrain on this layer over the past week, and conditions will be slow to improve. The only way to truly manage this problem is to avoid traveling on or below steep terrain. The danger is MODERATE below 1000′, where the main hazard is the potential for large avalanches failing at higher elevations and running into valley bottoms.
A message from the Forest: SKOOKUM VALLEY will close to motorized use tomorrow, April 1st, due to the National Forest Plan. The boundary extends East of the Railroad tracks from Luebner Lake (South) to private property boundary (North). The rest of the Placer River Valley remains open.
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Sat, April 1st, 2023 |
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
There were no new avalanches reported yesterday. The last human-triggered avalanche was a large remote-triggered avalanche north of Girdwood on Tuesday. That was just the latest in a string of very large human-triggered avalanches in the area in the past week.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Despite another day of quiet weather on tap today, we are still dealing with dangerous avalanche conditions. The weak snow that was buried by the series of storms starting on 3/14 has not changed much, and it is still possible to trigger a very large avalanche. This layer is 3-6′ deep on average, and has produced large avalanches as recently as Tuesday. Part of the reason we haven’t seen more activity this week is just because there haven’t been as many people out since last weekend, when we saw multiple very large human-triggered avalanches.
This deep slab problem is really hard to predict, and impossible to manage beyond just avoiding traveling on or below steep terrain. It’s frustrating because now is the time of the season when we’re usually trying to get into bigger terrain, but the snowpack is just too dangerous right now. The problem layer is too deep to get any reliable test results, but we have found that weak structure in every pit we have dug since last weekend – most recently in four different pits between Magnum and Cornbiscuit yesterday (details here).
We have seen the size of avalanches this setup is capable of producing, and it is scary. It is going to take some time to heal, so for now all we can do is be patient and avoid steep terrain.
Wind Slabs: With another day of light to moderate winds, it is likely we will be able to find small but reactive wind slabs in upper elevation terrain. Be on the lookout for stiff snow on the surface, especially right below ridgelines, convexities, and in steep gullies.
Glide Avalanches: We have seen increased glide activity in the past week. These avalanches are very large and entirely unpredictable, so be sure to limit the time you spend traveling below them.
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Yesterday: Light snowfall finished in the morning with clouds breaking up in the afternoon. High temperatures were in the mid to upper 20’s F at upper elevations, and in the low to mid 30’s F at lower elevations. Winds were light out of the east in the morning, switching westerly in the afternoon.
Today: Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid 20’s to low 30’s F and overnight lows dropping into the mid teens to 20 F. Light westerly outflow winds will pick up steadily during the day, but should stay around 5-10 mph with gusts of 10-20 mph. No precipitation is expected.
Tomorrow: Northwest winds will pick up slightly tomorrow, blowing 10-20 mph with gusts of 15-25 mph. High temperatures will be in the low 20’s to 30 F with lows in the low to mid teens F. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny, and no precipitation is expected.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 30 | 0 | 0 | 95 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 29 | 0 | 0 | 47 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 35 | tr | 0.2 | – |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 19 | NE-NW* | 4 | 12 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 23 | E-NW* | 3 | 8 |
*Winds shifted directions yesterday evening.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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