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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 2500′. Consistent moderate winds over the past 24 hours have created fresh wind slabs along ridgelines and cross loaded gullies that are likely to be triggered by a person and possible for natural avalanches. These wind slabs may be sitting on top of a layer of buried surface hoar from 3.16.22 which could make them easier to trigger and have the potential to release on lower angle slopes. Consistent snowfall over the past 3 days has built up enough storm snow in some areas to cause storm slab avalanches in areas protected from the wind. In addition, a deeper layer of buried surface hoar from 3.2.22 could cause larger avalanches.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE from 1000′ to 2500′. Human triggered storm slabs sitting on top of the 3.16.22 buried surface hoar are possible for a person to trigger today especially where 6+” of new snow has fallen over the past 3 days. Below 1000′ the avalanche danger is LOW.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
A low intensity storm has been residing over our area for the past 3 days and dropped anywhere from 6-24+” of snow across the region. Coastal areas like Portage and Placer have been heavily favored by snowfall and likely received multiple feet of new snow in the past 3 days. Girdwood and Turnagain have been consistently picking up anywhere from 1-6″ of snow each day for the past 3 days, which is falling on top of the 3.16 buried surface hoar layer. Yesterday, a natural avalanche reported on W face of Eddies indicates that enough snow has fallen throughout the storm to cause storm snow avalanches in protected areas, which are likely easier to trigger due to the 3/16 buried surface hoar underneath.
As the snowfall tapers off today further natural avalanches will be unlikely in protected areas but human triggered storm slab avalanches are possible in areas that have received 6″ or more of new snow on top of the 3.16 buried surface hoar. Yesterday in the Crow Creek area we observed multiple melt freeze layers in the upper 6″ of the snowpack on southern aspects that are caused by the combination of warm temperatures and solar heating. These layers will add some strength to the upper snowpack and will make triggering a storm slab avalanche less likely on southern aspects.
In addition, fresh wind slabs 1-2′ deep will be likely to cause human triggered avalanches and possible for natural avalanches today, especially at upper elevations where the winds have been averaging 10-20 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph since yesterday around noon. We are somewhat blind to the upper elevation winds in Turnagain Pass because the Sunburst Weather stations stopped reporting data on 3.13, which we hope to get fixed next week. Look for hollow feeling snow, shooting cracks, and active wind loading to identify areas harboring wind slabs. The presence of the 3.16 buried surface hoar could make them easier to trigger on lower angle slopes. We recommend conservative decision-making and gradually easing into steeper terrain if you decide to travel in avalanche terrain today.
Loose Snow Avalanches: The storm over the past 3 days has provided a needed refresh to our snow surfaces. However, the added soft surface snow could lead to wet loose avalanche on southern aspects and dry loose avalanches on northern aspects.
Cornices: The combination of moist new snow and winds is a recipe for cornice building, which could make cornices more sensitive to failure under the weight of a person. As always, give a wide berth to cornices when walking along ridgelines and try to minimize time spent underneath them.
Glide Avalanches: The warm temperatures recently have opened up many glide cracks, especially along the E face of Seattle Ridge. These can release anytime and cause large avalanches, so it is best to minimize time spent underneath them.
Example of 3.16 buried surface hoar underneath the storm snow from the past 3 days, which was about 10-12″ deep on Eddies. Photo from Brooke Edwards 3.18.22
Melt freeze layers in the upper snowpack on a E aspect at 2700′. In areas with these melt freeze crusts we did not find either layer of BSH. Photo from Andy Moderow 3.18.22
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
An older layer of buried surface hoar which was buried on 3.2 is a lingering concern for producing large avalanches with the potential for wide propagation and releasing on lower slope angles than typical. It has been a challenge to map the distribution of the 3.2 buried surface hoar layer because it is not always obvious in snowpits or hand pits. Prior observations have consistently shown the 3.2 BSH on Seattle Ridge and in some but not all areas on the skiers side of Turnagain Pass. The layer seems to be less widely distributed in the Girdwood area, but it is still worth looking for it before entering avalanche terrain. Instability tests like extended column tests and compression tests can help you locate the 3.2 BSH and assess how reactive it is in the area you are travelling.
Two layers of buried surface hoar from a snowpit on a N aspect on Eddies yesterday at around 2100′. Photo Brooke Edwards 3.18.22
Yesterday: Broken to overcast skies and warm temperatures, reaching high 30s at lower elevations and mid to upper 20s at ridgetops. Over the past 24 hours Turnagain Pass and Portage received 6-8″ of new snow with Girdwood closer to 3-5″. Snow line rose up to 1200′ yesterday afternoon, with rain falling at the road elevation throughout Turnagain Pass. Wind speeds increased around noon yesterday and have been averaging 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph at ridgetops since then.
Today: Snowfall should taper off this morning with just a trace expected across region today. A low pressure system lingering in the gulf of Alaska could keep things cloudy and unsettled until it moves out or another low pressure moves in with more precipitation. Temperatures have fallen a bit overnight and should be in the low 30s at lower elevations today and low 20s at ridgetops. Winds look like they will remain consistent today with averages of 10-25 mph and gusts up to 30-40 mph at upper elevations.
Tomorrow: Looks similar to Saturday, but with winds dying down somewhat and the chance of improved visibility throughout the day. No significant new snow is expected on Sunday. Temperatures should remain relatively consistent over the next couple days. Monday looks like the best visibility day in the short term. More snowfall is expected to impact the area Tuesday afternoon through the rest of next week.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 33 | 6 | 0.5 | 98 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 29 | 0 | 0 | 39 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 34 | 3 | 0.3 | NA |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 28 | SE | 6 | 22 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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