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A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger remains at all elevations from Girdwood, though Turnagain Pass to Seward. There are many avalanche concerns, but the most dangerous is the potential that someone could trigger a large and deadly slab avalanche on slopes 30 degrees or steeper. These slabs are unmanageable and range from 3-6′ thick. They could be triggered from the ridge above a slope or below. Other concerns are triggering a fresh wind slab avalanche, around a foot thick, due to an increase in winds last night and older slabs composed of last week’s storm snow. In short, very cautious route-finding and conservative decision making is essential if headed into the backcountry.
REGION-WIDE Avalanche Hazard: Dangerous avalanche conditions remain in many areas of Southcentral. If you are headed to Hatcher Pass, don’t forget to check out HPAC’s Saturday Forecast!
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
No new natural avalanches were seen or reported yesterday. Also, few folks were out in the backcountry yesterday and to our knowledge, people have stayed out of avalanche terrain and slopes have not been tested. However, artillery was able to trigger large slabs during AKDOT & PF’s avalanche hazard reduction work along the Seward Highway. Below are few more photos of the natural avalanche cycle that occurred Tuesday through Thursday (Feb 18-20).
A zoomed in look into Davis creek (between Magnum and Cornbiscuit) and the Superbowl area with Goldpan peak in the far distance. Note the multiple slab avalanches. These most likely released Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning (Feb 19 or 20). Photo taken on Feb 20 by Travis Smith.
Natural slab avalanche on Sunburst’s SW face. Note the debris further up valley in the shade. It appears that earlier in the storm a few additional sections of Sunburst avalanched as well. 2.20.20. Photo: Travis Smith
Various pockets of slab avalanches that occurred on Cornbiscuit’s west face. 2.20.20. Photo: Travis Smith
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
With a clearing trend on the door step and 6-8″ of new snow from yesterday (on top of the 3-5 feet of new snow from Tues-Thur), the mountains will be quite enticing to powder lovers for the next few days. This is worrisome. Not only because the storm snow is still adjusting, but under all that amazing snow are weak layers that are proving to be reactive.
The natural cycle we had a glimpse of Thursday afternoon proves that the snowpack isn’t stable. Many of the avalanches had crowns 5-8′ thick, were rated ‘very large’ and stepped down into buried weak snow. Can someone charge up and onto slopes and trigger one of these monsters? Can a person be cautious traveling along a ridge and trigger one? What about triggering from below a slope? Everything we have seen so far points to YES, we can. We are in a ‘tip-toe’ situation because these types of avalanches are much too large to have any way of managing.
To avoid these issues, we can play in the powder in the flats or on slopes 30 degrees or less with nothing steeper above us.
If you are headed out into avalanche terrain today, things to remember:
The photo above shows the weak facets around 3 feet deep. The image also shows a failure in the slab from a storm snow interface that is still bonding. Either way, unfortunately there is bad news in our snowpack.
Close up view of the Motorized up-track on Seattle Ridge and a portion of the Repeat Offender slide path has not slid. Another big thanks to Travis Smith for his photos.
Video Link HERE.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Storm snow avalanche issues exist in the top couple feet of the snowpack. Keep in mind, one of these types of avalanches could ‘step down’ and trigger a much larger slide.
Wind slabs: The wind picked up last night, blowing 15-20mph with gusts near 40mph from the east. With all this fresh snow, we can expect to find new touchy wind slabs around a foot thick. Additionally, older wind slabs from last week’s storm could be triggered, these would be several feet thick and very dangerous.
Storm slabs: The storm snow from the past week is still bonding to the old snow underneath. Triggering a slab composed of the storm snow is still possible. The snow has settled just over a foot and these storm slabs are now in the 1-3′ thick range.
Cornices: These have grown substantially over the past week and could easily be triggered. If making it to the ridgelines, be sure to give these features a very wide berth.
Loose Snow avalanches: Sluffs in the loose surface snow are likely. If getting on slopes this steep, there are much larger avalanche problems to deal with.
Yesterday: Cloudy and obscured skies filled the region through the day and cleared out over night. Snowfall during the day added between 6-8″ of very low density snow to sea level is most areas with interior Kenai and Summit Lake seeing only 2-3″. Ridgetop winds were calm until 6pm when they picked up from the east averaging 15-20mph with gusts near 40mph during the overnight hours. Temperatures dropped from the 20-30°F range to the teens and single digits along ridgelines overnight as well.
Today: Partly cloudy skies are forecast as a weak low pressure spins areas of clouds overhead. A chance for a few snow flurries is possible with no accumulation. Ridgetop winds should remain out of the east in the 10-15mph range with gusts to 25mph. Temperatures look to keep dropping and reach the single (or minus single) digits tonight at most elevations.
Tomorrow: Some cloud cover may be over us again tomorrow, but we are generally in a clearing trend until Monday night. Ridgetop winds look to stay light to moderate from variable directions Sunday into Monday and temperatures cold.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 23 | 7 | 0.4 | 84 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 20 | 3 | 0.2 | 30 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 23 | 6-8 | 0.44 | 94 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 12 | E | 10 | 38 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 19 | *N/A | *N/A | *N/A |
*Seattle Ridge anemometer (wind sensor) is rimed over and not reporting.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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