Turnagain Pass
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all aspects above 1,000′. Triggering a lingering wind slab formed over the past two days will be possible in exposed areas as well as in the trees. These are likely to be around a foot deep. Natural loose snow avalanches are possible as the sun may be strong enough to initiate these on southerly steep aspects. Sluffs are also likely to be triggered by us. Additionally, there are some weak layers in the top few feet of the snowpack in specific areas that could produce a larger avalanche. Last, give cornices a wide berth. The danger is LOW below 1,000′.
*Strong northwest outflow winds are forecast to develop tomorrow, Monday. If this is the case, avalanche danger may increase despite the sunny weather.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
A few shallow wind slabs were triggered yesterday in Girdwood Valley’s Notch area. These were reported to be fresh wind slabs on the windloaded sides of rollovers in the trees. Report HERE.
Fresh wind slab skier triggered in upper Girdwood Valley (Notch area) yesterday. Thank you to Kakiko Ramos-Leon for the photo. 2.18.23.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
After a long stretch of unsettled weather and poor(ish) visibility, what looks to be a nice sunny Sunday is on tap. Several inches of low density snow fell yesterday, with what looks to be an average of 4-6″ in most places. The winds over the past couple days have been moderate to strong from the east and enough to form wind slabs in some areas. With this, plus sunshine today and a few questionable buried weak layers, there are a lot of avalanche issues we should be on the lookout for if headed out.
Wind Slabs: Lingering wind slabs, similar to the photo above, may still be triggered today. Although these are likely getting more stubborn with time, there could be some that are still touchy if they happen to be sitting on one of the various layers of buried surface hoar that have sprouted up over last week. Watch for cracking in the snow around you and stiffer snow over softer snow. These are expected to be in the foot deep range and found in the usual places along ridgelines, on rollovers, and in cross-loaded gullies. They could be a bit concealed by a skiff of new snow that fell after the winds.
SUN EFFECT: The sun could be strong enough today to warm and initiate sluffs in southerly steep rocky terrain. These could start small, but with several inches of loose snow on the surface they could run further and gain more volume than one may expect.
Loose snow avalanches: Watch your sluff. Just like that stated above, sluffs could be larger than expected and likely easy to trigger on steep slopes.
Cornices: With weather conducive to ridgeline travel, be sure to give cornices a wide berth.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Although we have seen many areas with a generally stable snowpack, especially around Turnagain, there are still some questionable layers in the top 3 feet. A skier found one of these layers reactive in the Girdwood Valley (Crow Creek, Goat Shoulder) two days ago. At elevations between 1,000 and 2,000′ roughly a buried crust from Jan 25 exists that in places has weak facets above it. It seems that the thinner snowpack areas, where this layer is ~2′ deep or less, still has spots it is reactive. These areas are Crow Ck drainage and the southern end of Turnagain Pass toward Johnson Pass.
Additionally, over the past 10 days three layers of surface hoar grew in brief spells of clear skies that are now intermixed in the top foot(ish) of low density snow. These layers don’t seem to be causing much problem now, but the last known layer that formed on Feb 15, which sits around 6-10″ deep, seems like it could be more of an issue. Something to keep in mind moving forward. Quick hand pits to see if there are any easy shears, watching for cracking in the snow around us, and jumping on small test slopes, will be tools for sussing out any funny business under the soft surface snow.
This is a photo of an Extended Column Test (ECT) that broke in an old layer of buried surface hoar but did not propagate. It’s a good sign when these tests do not propagate. Thanks to Blase Reardon (Director of the Flathead Avalanche Center in Montana) for the photo and test results. 2.18.23.
Avalanche legend Nancy Pfeiffer came out to look at the avalanche that was skier triggered on Friday up Crow Creek. We found the slab (14-16″ deep) to have released on facets over the 1/25 crust. 2.18.23.
In areas with a thin snowpack (i.e, Silvertip and the southern end of the forecast region to Summit Lake) there are various weak layers near the base of the snowpack that remain a concern. For these areas, triggering a larger avalanche is not totally out of the question and a more cautious mindset is recommended.
Yesterday: Overcast skies, light to moderate snowfall, and gusty winds were over the region yesterday. Between 2-6″ of new snow fell with the higher amounts in Girdwood/Portage/Placer valleys and Turnagain Pass. Ridgetop winds were 10-20mph from the east with gusts in the 30’s. Temperature were mild, near 30F at the lower elevations and in the low 20’s along ridgelines.
Today: Mostly sunny skies with some valley fog is forecast today. Ridgetop winds turned northwesterly last night as the weather system moved out and they should blow in the 5-10mph range today with some stronger gusts possible. Temperatures are slowly cooling as the winds bring in colder arctic air (mid 20’sF at sea level and teens along ridgelines).
Tomorrow: Another sunny day is on tap for tomorrow, and Tuesday, as ridge of high pressure builds over Southcentral. Unfortunately, the northwest ‘outflow’ winds look to pick on Monday into the 25-35mph range with stronger gusts. Temperatures will continue to cool with the northerly flow of cold air.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 29 | 3 | 0.2 | 69 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 27 | 1 | 0.1 | 37 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 27 | 4 | 0.2 | 74 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 33 | 3 | 0.4 | – |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 19 | NE | 11 | 39 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 23 | SE | 8 | 25 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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