Turnagain Pass
|
![]() ![]() |
The avalanche danger is rising to CONSIDERABLE due to new snow and wind over the region. Naturally occurring storm snow avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are likely. Fresh wind slabs, 1-2′ thick, should be easily triggered on wind loaded slopes. Areas seeing over 10″ of new snow should expect slab avalanches in wind sheltered zones. Additionally, expect natural cornice falls, sluffs in steep terrain and wet loose avalanches below 500′. Careful snowpack evaluation and conservative decision-making are essential if headed into avalanche terrain.
SUMMIT LAKE / COOPER LANDING: Central and Western Kenai mountains have seen 4-8″ of new snow with more on the way. This area has a very poor snowpack with multiple weak layers. New snow avalanches are a concern, but triggering a slab 1-3′ thick, breaking deeper in the snowpack is a much more dangerous problem. Watch for whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches.
SEWARD/ LOST LAKE: Avalanche danger has risen in this region as well and storm snow avalanches are likely today.
BYRON GLACIER TRAIL Hikers: Natural avalanches may send debris to valley floors. Recognize and avoid being in the runout paths. Also, the popular snow cave is very dangerous and unstable.
Avalanche danger is rising region-wide with new snow and wind. Hatcher Pass is calling for dangerous avalanche conditions – Please check their forecast HERE before heading this way.
GOOD LUCK to all the Iron Dog racers today! Friends of the CNFAIC along with forecaster Aleph Johnston-Bloom connected with riders Friday night at the ‘Iron Dog Expo’.
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
For anyone that was out yesterday, you may have noticed that the several inches of fluffy low-density snow greatly improved the surface conditions. Despite the good news, warmer temperatures have set in along with heavier and denser snowfall. The National Weather Service has continued their Winter Weather Advisory and is expecting an additional 7-10″ of snow today. This has set the stage for touchy new snow avalanche issues. The old hard surface will provide a slick bed surface and yesterday’s low-density snow will make it tough for the new heavier snow to stick right away. This type of storm, which begins cold and ends warm, is what we call in the avalanche world an ‘upside-down’ storm.
If the forecast verifies and we really do see 7-10″ of new snow we can expect:
All this said, the size of these avalanches is directly related to the amount of new snow. With somewhere between 10-18″ of storm snow total by this afternoon, wind slabs should be in the 1-2′ range and storm slabs in the 8-16″ range.
Storm Totals at mid-elevations as of 6am Sunday morning:
Turnagain Pass: 4-6″
Girdwood Valley: 7-10″
Summit Lake: 4-6″
Bear Valley (Whittier Tunnel): 7-10″
Moose Pass: 3-4″
Seward (Exit Glacier): 4-6″
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The load of the new snow today will again add stress to underlying weak layers. As we have been hammering home, roughly 1-3′ below the snow surface sits a layer of buried surface hoar and in some areas facets in Turnagain Pass proper. Periphery zones such as Summit Lake and Johnson Pass harbor a weaker snowpack with a variety of weak layers. Although these layera have not been reactive lately, additional load may start to tip the balance. It is good to keep in mind that avalanches occurring today have the ability to step down and trigger a larger more dangerous slide. This is a more likely case for the Summit Lake and central Kenai mountains.
Glide avalanches may be on the move again with the warm up seen over the past two days. Many cracks are present on heavily traveled slopes. The best way to manage this problem is to identify and avoid traveling directly below them.
Yesterday: Overcast skies and light snowfall covered the region. Roughly 4-6″ of low-density snow has fallen over the past 24-hours at most mid-elevations with the exception of Girdwood Valley that recorded up to 8″. Ridgetop winds have been 15-25mph with gusts in the 40’s from the east. Temperatures remained in the teens to 20F yesterday along ridgelines before warming up overnight to the mid 20’sF and the low 30’sF at sea level.
Today: Moderate to heavy snowfall adding 7 to 10″ is expected over the course of the day with an additional 2-4″ overnight. Warm air is streaming in and pushing the rain/snow line up to ~500′. Ridgetop winds are rising and forecast to average in the 40-50’s mph from the east. Temperatures will sit in the mid 30’sF at sea level and in the mid 20’s F above treeline.
Tomorrow: Another frontal system moves in on President’s Day, which will continue our active weather pattern into the work week. Right now models are showing a cooling trend with this next system and snow to sea level.
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
Center Ridge (1880′) | 26 | 4-6 | 0.3 | 61 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 25 | 4-6 | 0.3 | 27 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 25 | 8 | 0.6 | 54 |
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
Sunburst (3812′) | 16 | NE | 13 | 47 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 22 | SE | 15 | 36 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
The riding areas page has moved. Please click here & update your bookmarks.
Subscribe to Turnagain Pass
Avalanche Forecast by Email