Turnagain Pass
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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at all elevations. With new snow, rising temperatures and strong winds overnight, triggering a storm slab is likely and natural avalanches are possible. In addition, triggering a large and dangerous slab avalanche 2-4′ thick on buried weak layers is possible and these avalanches may be triggered remotely. Conservative travel and decision-making are essential today.
There is a Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 9 am this morning.
PORTAGE: Natural avalanches have the potential to hit the Byron Glacier trail and the lake.
REGION-WIDE: Heads up! Strong winds have created dangerous slab avalanche conditions from Seward to Hatcher Pass. Extra Caution is advised. Choose terrain very carefully. Check out these recent observations and the Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center Facebook page for more information.
6th Annual Snowball! Friday – February 14, 2020. 7-11 pm at 49th State Brewing Co. in Anchorage. I Like Robots will be rockin’ our favorite 80’s tunes! Awesome silent auction and costume contest, so break out your best 80’s fashion and snow gear! $35 tickets on sale HERE. Proceeds support Friends of the Chugach Avalanche Center and the Alaska Avalanche School.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
PRELIMINARY ACCIDENT INFORMATION: February 10th, Boulder Creek Drainage, South of Cooper Landing. Link HERE. This occurred outside of the CNFAIC forecast area.
*A final report is being compiled as we continue to gather additional information. It will be posted as soon as possible. Our deepest condolences go out to the family, friends, and everyone affected at this difficult time.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The already dangerous snowpack is getting loaded again! Please choose terrain very carefully. Alyeska Resort is a great option today or riding in the flats well away from the runout of avalanche terrain. The region picked up 5-10″ of snow overnight with the Portage area being favored and it is still snowing this morning. Winds were easterly averaging 15-25 mph overnight and gusting into the 50s and are still at it this morning. Temperatures rose into the high 20s and with some sea level locations reaching the mid 30s. All these factors combined create the recipe for new storm slabs 6″ to a foot deep and potentially deeper wind slabs in exposed terrain. The temperature increase and/or the wind effect will likely make the snow feel upside down with heavier snow over lighter snow. In addition, this all could overload already dangerous slabs sitting on buried weak layers and step down creating a much larger avalanche (please see Avalanche Problem 2). Look for cracking in the new snow, drifting and wind texture at upper elevations and remember 2-4′ below the surface lurks a very dangerous snowpack structure.
Wind slabs: There is also older wind effected snow just below the new snow from the NW wind event on Monday that could also be potentially triggered in steep terrain. Leeward i.e. loaded terrain for that event was opposite from the loading last night. This is another complexity of the current snowpack.
Loose snow avalanches: Below treeline heavy wet snow may cause loose snow avalanches.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Triggering a very large unsurvivable avalanche is a very real possibility today. It has been CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger for two weeks. That is a long stretch to have such dangerous conditions and is unfortunately the nature of a persistent slab problem. We don’t see this issue healing up anytime soon. Each snowfall and wind event have incrementally loaded the very weak snow that formed in January. Warming temperatures have made the upper layers of snow even more cohesive/slabby. There have very large human triggered and natural avalanches observed and avalanches have been triggered remotely. The most recent avalanches observed were on Monday and were very large. Don’t get lured into terrain today by new snow and flirt with triggering a large slab avalanche. As you look ahead to clear skies tomorrow please dial back the fun meter. This snowpack deserves respect. An observer yesterday on Magnum said this was one of the spookiest set-ups he had ever seen and noted a large crown wrapping around Super Bowl that likely slid over the weekend and very large debris chunks in the gulley. Reading back through the observations really illustrates the snowpack issues and avalanche potential. This morning is a great day to do that!
Yesterday: Yesterday was mostly overcast with some partly cloudy breaks. Temperatures rose steadily throughout the day starting in the single digits and low teens and hitting mid to high twenties overnight. Winds were light and westerly in the morning an shifted to the east and increased in the afternoon. Overnight winds were averaging in the 20s gusting into the 50s. Snow started falling around 9 pm with 4-6″ of accumulation overnight.
Today: Cloudy skies and snow, 2-6″ forecast and the potential for mixed precipitation at sea level. Temperatures will range from the mid thirties at sea level to low 20s in the Alpine. Winds will be easterly and gusty this morning shifting to the north and decreasing mid day becoming light. Scattered snow showers will continue in the evening. Skies clear overnight and temperatures drop into the single digits.
Tomorrow: Mostly clear skies as a ridge of high pressures sets up over the region. Temperatures will be in the teens and winds will be light and westerly. Looking ahead the next chance of snow is Saturday through the holiday weekend. Stay tuned!
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 18 | 5 | 0.6 | 59 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 15 | 2 | 0.2 | 24 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 17 | 5 | 0.39 | 60 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 13 | NE | 15 | 57 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 17 | SE | 8 | 27 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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