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The avalanche danger is expected to rise to CONSIDERABLE today above 1,000′ due to strong northwesterly winds forecast to impact the region. Naturally occurring wind slab avalanches are possible and human triggered wind slabs are likely on steep slopes with active wind loading. Wind slabs also have the potential to overload buried weak layers and initiate a larger slab avalanche. In areas out of the wind, the possibility remains for a person to trigger a slab avalanche on these buried weak layers.
SUMMIT LAKE and LOST LAKE: Very strong winds are expected south of the forecast zone and naturally occurring large wind slab avalanches on leeward facing terrain are likely.
Soldotna Avalanche Awareness. Join CNFAIC’s Aleph Johnston-Bloom for an evening avalanche awareness chat on Tuesday, Feb 4th, 6-7:30 pm at Odie’s in Soldotna. FREE! Great information for those new to recreating in the backcountry and useful review for experienced folks. Geared to all modes of travel. Hope to see you there!
Headed to Hatcher Pass? Don’t forget to check the HPAC’s Saturday avalanche forecast at hpavalanche.org and their Facebook page!
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Updated @ 9am: We had a report of a snowmachine triggered slab avalanche near the Johnson Pass area yesterday. Reported as ‘a slab on a smallish slope near the Johnson pass trail’. Heads up in areas like this with steep avalanche terrain above you.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Cold Arctic air is spilling in from the north this morning and along with clearing out the skies, it’s also expected to wreak some havoc with the snow. As of 6am this morning, the northwest ridgetop winds have bumped up to the teens with gusts in the 20’s at the Sunburst weather station. They are expected to reach averages near 20-30mph with stronger gusts and even stronger winds are expected south of Turnagain Pass. Although the snow surface was affected by Wednesday night’s winds, there is still plenty of loose snow available for transport. This flow direction can funnel through Crow Pass near Girdwood and the Kenai mountains in interesting patterns, loading different aspects on the same pieces of terrain, and can also split around and spare certain zones.
For anyone headed out today, keep a close eye out for where the winds are transporting snow, building cornices and loading slopes. Plumes are likely to be visible if the winds verify. As always, feel for stiff snow over softer snow and any cracks that shoot out from you. These are signs you’ve likely found a wind slab. Avoid being under cornices, these could form in unusual places. Additionally, buried weak layers hide 2-3+’ below the surface and freshly wind loaded slopes could overload these, creating a much larger avalanche. It’s a day to avoid any slope that has recent or active wind loading.
The animation below is from windy.com and shows the general forecast wind pattern along ridgetops, around 5,000′ in elevation. Blue is light wind and orange/red is strong (color legend is on the bottom of the image). Note: weather model data is useful for a general pattern and not always accurate for a specific point.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
As we saw yesterday with the brief period of visibility, several avalanches occurred during the winds on Wednesday night and many of these were suspect to have released on the old weak snow that developed during the first part of January. Even in areas out of today’s winds, don’t forget there are facets and buried surface hoar hiding 2-3+’ under us. As the 2-3′ of low-density snow from the past week settles and stiffens, these layers are still something that could catch us off guard and triggering a persistent slab avalanche remains possible. Sticking to lower angle slopes, with nothing steeper above us and the flats are good ways to manage this risk.
This photo was shown yesterday and is taken of the northerly aspect of Sunburst. Note the wide propagation of the slab avalanche that released sometime Wednesday night (1.29.20) in conjunction with the bump in easterly winds.
Loose Snow Avalanches: On steep slopes that are spared the wind and in the lower elevations, watch for easily triggered sluffs.
Yesterday: Overcast skies were over the region with light snowfall in Girdwood and Portage Valley adding 1-2″ of new snow. Ridgetop winds were light from the west (0-5 mph). Temperatures were cold, single digits at all elevations, with the exception of sea level areas which remained in the upper teens.
Today: Mostly clear skies are expected today along with very cold northwesterly winds. These outflow winds are forecast to blow generally in the 20-30mph range with areas toward Seward seeing higher speeds. Temperatures will continue to drop along ridgelines to the -10 to 0°F range while lower elevations remain just above zero.
Tomorrow: A strong low-pressure system heads into Southcentral Alaska tomorrow and will bring cloud cover, a switch in wind direction to the east and a chance for some snowfall.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 11 | trace | trace | 60 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 10 | 2 | 0.1 | 57 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 4 | W | 5 | 22 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 5 | *N/A | *N/A | *N/A |
*Seattle Ridge anemometer (wind sensor) is rimed over and not operating.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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