Sat, December 15, 2018 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Sat, December 15th, 2018

Alpine

Above 2,500'

2 - Moderate

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

2 - Moderate

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Dangerous avalanche conditions.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Wind Slabs
Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic (D4-5)

Very Large (D3)

Large (D2)

Small (D1)

Size

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches

Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

Watch for changing conditions. Ridgetop winds have picked up and should be blowing the existing loose surface snow into sensitive wind slabs this morning. These fresh slabs are likely to be shallow, around a foot thick, and easy to recognize if you are looking for them. Watch for areas with wind deposited snow and loading patterns in general. Shooting cracks will be an obvious clue wind slabs are tender. Feel for punchy or upside down snow and keep in mind the consequences of the terrain should even a small slab pull out from underneath you. In areas where winds aren’t an issue loose surface snow could move faster and farther than expected.

Trevor Grams sent in this photo from the Library area further back along Tincan Ridge yesterday. Note the loose surface snow available for transport with today’s winds.

Avalanche Problem 2

Persistent Slabs
Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic (D4-5)

Very Large (D3)

Large (D2)

Small (D1)

Size

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Size of Avalanches

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

As is often the case, the snowpack in the periphery zones of our advisory area such as, Crow Pass and Summit Lake have a shallower snowpack. In these areas, and even those closer to Turnagain Pass itself, we are tracking buried layers of facets and crusts that sit 1-2′ under the snow surface. These layers are most prevalent in the mid-elevations (2000’ – 2700’) and though snow pit data and a lack of avalanche activity has been pointing to an unlikely chance for an avalanche releasing deeper in the pack, additional snow load in the Summit area could start to tip the balance. Evaluate the snowpack and terrain as you travel and be aware that obvious clues like whumpfing may not be present.

Additional Concern

Glide Avalanches

Glide Avalanches

Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.

More info at Avalanche.org

Glide cracks are beginning to open up in many places, including Sunburst’s SW face under the weather station, SW face of Tincan Proper, Gold Pan area (behind Cornbiscuit/Magnum) and the one shown below in the Johnson Pass area. These cracks can release at any moment, as this one did below in Johnson Pass. They are not associated with human triggers and the best way to manage the hazard is to avoid being on or beneath slopes with cracks.

Photos of the Johnson Pass area glide avalanche couresy of Matt McKee.

An unnamed longtime CNFAIC pro observer puts his take on this avalanche problem…

Weather

Sat, December 15th, 2018

Yesterday: Overcast skies were over region yesterday. Evening snow showers favored the Summit Lake area on the Kenai and further South where 4-6″ fell along the Seward Highway. Turnagain Pass and Girdwood only picked up 1-2″. This storm also favored the Anchorage region and North with 4-6″. Ridgetop winds have remained easterly in the 10-20mph range with gusts in the 30’s. Temperatures warmed dramatically overnight and are sitting in the teens along the ridgetops and 20’s at 1,000′.

Today: Snow showers have picked up this morning in Portage Valley and Girdwood. This quick moving front should give the mountains 2-4″ of snow before moving out by midday. Ridgetop easterly winds have picked up as well and should stay in the 15-25 mile range with gusts in the 40’s. Temperatures continue to rise and are expected to hit the upper 20’s at 3,000′ and mid 30’s at sea level.

Tomorrow: What looks like a stronger front associated with the low-pressure in the Gulf moves in on Sunday. This should give the Turnagain area another chance to build up the snowpack. Warmer temperatures could bring a rain/snow mix to sea level, but so far it looks like it will be all snow at 1,000′. Stay tuned!

*Seattle Ridge anemometer (wind sensor) is rimed over and not reporting.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	20	1	0.1	30
Summit Lake (1400′)	18	4	0.5	13
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	21	3	0.3	17

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	14	ENE	14	41
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	20	*no data	*no data	*no data

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
11/16/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	William Finley
11/14/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst/Magnum	Adrian Beebee
11/14/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	Schauer/ Creighton/ Ellis Forecaster
11/13/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan Trees	Eeva Latosuo
11/12/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	Schauer/ Creighton/ Nave Forecaster
11/12/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Goldpan – avalanche	Mike Records
11/11/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	Andy Moderow
11/11/23	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass – Sunburst	Wadsworth / Stwertka
11/10/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Andrew Schauer Forecaster
11/10/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Trees	Michael Kerst

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