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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Thu, February 1st, 2018 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, February 2nd, 2018 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Aleph Johnston-Bloom
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is  MODERATE  above 2,500′ for triggering a slab avalanche 1-3′ thick.  Slopes with signs of wind loading will be the most suspect for triggering an avalanche. Additionally, watch for easily initiated  loose snow avalanches (sluffs) on steep slopes.

Below 2500′ the danger is LOW.  Remember low danger doesn’t mean no danger.  

Special Announcements

Snug Harbor Road access to Lost Lake, Summit Lake, Palmer Creek and the Resurrection Pass Trail System all on the Seward Ranger District are open to motorized use as of today.

Thu, February 1st, 2018
Alpine
Above 2,500'
2 - Moderate
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

Because last week’s storm loaded a widespread layer of surface hoar (a persistent weak layer) we are calling this a persistent slab issue and not just a wind slab. The main concern in the advisory area is finding a slope where the snow above the January 21st buried surface hoar is acting like a slab. We are not finding evidence of this below 2500′. Cold temperatures with the inversion have been quickly degrading the snow near and below treeline. Slopes near ridgelines in the Alpine, are where the winds over the weekend affected the snow and changed it from fluffy, low density powder to stiff and consolidated wind crust or slab. There were a couple reports of people intentionally triggering small slabs on wind-loaded slopes Tuesday that failed on the buried surface hoar, one skier triggered and one snowmachine triggered. These are a good reminder that despite the cold and clear weather now slowly faceting away the slabs; there is still the possibility of finding and triggering lingering slabs in leeward terrain today.  Remember that there is surface hoar is lurking underneath the recent snow and it’s important to assess areas affected by wind. Slabs can be deeper in loaded areas. Pay attention to slopes where the snow feels stiff, looks pillowed or sounds hollow and watch for shooting cracks. A small slab in the wrong terrain could have high consequences. The easterly winds have picked up this morning blowing into the teens and 20s. Look for changing conditions today if you see snow getting moved around.

Evidence of a natural wind slab avalanche in Ragged Bowl and wind-affected snow. This was likely triggered during the higher winds around the Girdwood area Sunday into Monday morning. Photo: Mike Ausman

Snow pit from Cornbiscuit yesterday. The January 21st buried surface hoar was easy to find but not reactive in this spot. 

January 21st buried surface hoar preserved under the slab.

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Dry Loose
    Dry Loose
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Dry Loose
Dry Loose avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

As the cold weather continues to loosen and facet the surface snow, loose snow avalanches (sluffs) are becoming larger and faster by the day. Watch out for and manage your sluff in steep terrain features.

Natural loose snow avalanches and skier triggered sluffs on Magnum.

 

Additional Concern
  • Deep Persistent Slabs
    Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
More info at Avalanche.org

Triggering a deep slab is becoming unlikely, but is still not out of the question above 3000′. In the high elevation snowpack there are a variety of weak layers in the mid pack and near the ground. Because of this poor structure, there is still a chance of triggering a deep slab if you find the wrong spot. The most likely trigger spots are in thin areas in the snow cover, often near rocks, or where the slope rolls over. 

Weather
Thu, February 1st, 2018

Yesterday the clouds moved out and the skies became clear again. Temperatures were in the teens at upper elevations and single digits in the valleys. Winds were light and easterly. Overnight they picked up a little from the SE blowing in consistently in the teens. Temperatures dropped below 0F in the valley bottoms and were in the single digits to low teens at ridgelines stations.

Today will be clear and sunny. Temperatures will be in the single digits to teens with an inversion still in place. Winds will be easterly 5-15 mph gusting into the 20s.  

This sunny, cold weather is forecast to continue into the weekend. There is a chance of snow showers Monday afternoon and a “gradual uptick in temperature.” Stay tuned to see what actually happens with the blocking high that is dominating our weather.  

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)  18  0  0  62
Summit Lake (1400′)  3  0  0  17
Alyeska Mid (1700′)  11  0    0    51

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)  12 NE  6 20  
Seattle Ridge (2400′)  12 variable  7   18  
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.