Mon, January 15, 2018 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Mon, January 15th, 2018

Alpine

Above 2,500'

3 - Considerable

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

3 - Considerable

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Dangerous avalanche conditions.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Storm Slabs
Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic (D4-5)

Very Large (D3)

Large (D2)

Small (D1)

Size

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches

Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

Storm slabs, wind slabs and cornice falls associated with the heavy snowfall two days ago are still an issue today. Although the bonding of the new snow to the old snow surface is occurring quickly, slabs and cornices may still be triggered. Yesterday there were three large avalanches seen/reported in the Turnagain Pass zone. Two of these were in Main Bowl of Seattle Creek and were storm slabs triggered by snowmachiners. One was triggered by a cornice fall and one was remotely triggered from above. The third avalanche was on the SE face of Seattle Ridge and is unknown if this was a natural slide or triggered remotely from a snowmachiner(s) on the ridge. An avalanche course heard the slide from across the valley. This third avalanche looks to have stepped down into deeper weak layers in the pack. See photos below.

For today, if visibility allows for travel to the upper elevations, know that these types of avalanches remain possible. Furthermore, cornices have grown and could break farther back than expected. It is only the 2nd day out of a storm and don’t expect all slopes to remain intact. Although triggering a storm slab or wind slab avalanche will be less likely today, these slides can be large and have high consequences. Quick hand pits and getting your shovel out to look at the new/old snow bonding is a good way to help assess the slopes you are interested in riding. Assessing deeper weak layers in the pack is more difficult – more on that below. Keeping with safe travel habits, chiefly exposing only one person at time if venturing into avalanche terrain is key. Watch your buddies closely.

Close up of the crown of avalanche above, note the dark bed surface, this avalanche ‘stepped down’ into weak snow near the ground

Yesterday a snowmachine triggered a cornice fall, which triggered this storm slab avalanche in Main Bowl (1st Bowl) in the Seattle Creek drainage.

Avalanche Problem 2

Deep Persistent Slabs
Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic (D4-5)

Very Large (D3)

Large (D2)

Small (D1)

Size

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Size of Avalanches

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

Triggering a deep persistent slab is just as concerning, if not more concerning, as the avalanche issues in the new snow. This is because these can be larger and more destructive avalanches. Underneath the storm snow sit a variety of weak layers deeper in the snowpack. The first is the New Year’s buried surface hoar that is anywhere from 30″ to ~5′ deep (general snow depths vary widely due to wind distribution and snowfall differences). This layer was showing signs of being reactive in pits yesterday – it took a bit of force to fail, but once it fails, it’s sliding easily. There are also facets that have been found near crusts in the mid to lower pack as well as basal facets that sit near the ground. The point is, this is a complicated snowpack that just received a lot of weight – avalanches triggered deeper in the pack can be very large and unsurvivable.

Video of failure in the New Year’s buried surface hoar on Sunburst ridge, while the storm snow has bonded well in this area

Weather

Mon, January 15th, 2018

Partly sunny skies filled the area yesterday with no precipitation. Ridgetop winds bumped up to the 30’s with gusts in the 50’s mph yesterday morning from the East before tapering off significantly in the afternoon and overnight have been light and variable. Temperatures remained warm, in the mid to upper 20’sF along ridgetops and in the mid 30’sF below 1,000′. A slight inversion is in place this morning with valley bottoms in the upper 20’sF.

Today, we are just on the edge of some instability showers to our Northeast. We may see partly clear skies with no precipitation, yet we may also see these showers back down our way to bring 1-2″ of snow above 1,500 and light rain (.2″) below this. Ridgetop winds are expected to be relatively light, 5-15mph from the East today and into tonight. Temperatures will stay on the warm side with mid 30’sF at 1,000′ and the upper 20’sF along the ridgelines.

Early tomorrow another warm storm system moves in from the East. As of now, the rain/snow line looks to be around 2,000′ and possibly higher. Models are showing precipitation amounts in the 1-2″ of rain and 1-2+ feet of snow up high by Wednesday night. Stay tuned and cross your fingers for a lower rain line.

*A big THANKS to the folks who cleared off the Seattle Ridge weather station yesterday!

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	31	0	0	60
Summit Lake (1400′)	28	0	0	15
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	33	trace	0.04	48

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	27	NE	21	55
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	29	SE	15	30

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
11/16/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	William Finley
11/14/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst/Magnum	Adrian Beebee
11/14/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	Schauer/ Creighton/ Ellis Forecaster
11/13/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan Trees	Eeva Latosuo
11/12/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	Schauer/ Creighton/ Nave Forecaster
11/12/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Goldpan – avalanche	Mike Records
11/11/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	Andy Moderow
11/11/23	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass – Sunburst	Wadsworth / Stwertka
11/10/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Andrew Schauer Forecaster
11/10/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Trees	Michael Kerst

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