Thu, March 05, 2015 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Thu, March 5th, 2015

Alpine

Above 2,500'

2 - Moderate

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Dangerous avalanche conditions.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problem 1

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

More info at Avalanche.org

As most of us know, the mountains around Turnagain Pass are in much need of a refresher (snow to the road is yet another story). However, there is winter up high and Tuesday night we received a welcome 2-3″ of moist snow above 2,500′, which has improved riding conditions. In the big picture, it has been almost three weeks since our last significant precipitation event and avalanche cycle with the last of our avalanche activity ending 10 days ago. Since then, we have been monitoring a buried layer of weak faceted snow, weak snow surrounding sun crusts on Southerly aspects and wind slabs. All of these snowpack concerns are in the top 2′ or so of the pack and continue to show reactivity in pits in some areas but not all. What all this boils down to is, we are still concerned that someone could trigger a slab avalanche in the steep, more extreme, terrain above 2,500′.

Things to keep in mind today if visibility allows for travel in steep terrain:

1) Safe travel protocol – one person at a time on a slope, watch your partners, have an escape route planned if the snow moves.

2) No signs of instability are likely to be present, but that doesn’t mean the snowpack on the slope you are hitting is stable or the wind drift is locked into place.

Photos below are of Tincan yesterday in low light where 2-3″ of new damp snow covered old tracks and provided some fun carvey riding conditions!

Weather

Thu, March 5th, 2015

Overcast skies, mild temperatures and calm winds greeted backcountry travelers yesterday. The clouds just started to part at the end of the day as the low-pressure system that put down a few inches of new snow Tuesday moved out.

We should see a break from our warm temperatures after today as a cold front slides through Southcentral later tonight. Until then, partly cloudy skies and valley fog will remain through the day with temperatures in the upper 20’sF on the ridgetops and the upper 30’sF at 1,000′. Ridgetop winds will be 5-10mph from the East with a flurry or two that could be squeezed out of the clouds.

Beginning tomorrow, cold air slides in from the Northwest associated with a large-scale trough currently over the Bering. You can see this in the IR satellite image – the cold front is just passing through Western AK this morning – exciting news. Along with the colder air will be the chance for snow to sea level. This flow direction is not ideal for Turnagain Pass as opposed to Hatcher Pass, who could see a bit of snow. Stay tuned on how this pattern change will develop for the weekend! And, if you are headed North this weekend remember to check out Hatcher Pass’s Saturday AM advisory.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	33	0	0	40
Summit Lake (1400′)	34	0	0	7
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	35	0	0	24

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	26	E	5	18
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	28	n/a	10	17

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
11/16/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	William Finley
11/14/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst/Magnum	Adrian Beebee
11/14/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	Schauer/ Creighton/ Ellis Forecaster
11/13/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan Trees	Eeva Latosuo
11/12/23	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	Schauer/ Creighton/ Nave Forecaster
11/12/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Goldpan – avalanche	Mike Records
11/11/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Common	Andy Moderow
11/11/23	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass – Sunburst	Wadsworth / Stwertka
11/10/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Andrew Schauer Forecaster
11/10/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan Trees	Michael Kerst

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