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ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Mon, January 26th, 2015 - 7:00AM
Expires
Tue, January 27th, 2015 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
John Fitzgerald
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is LOW at all elevations today.   Triggering avalanches are unlikely.

Despite today’s date, early season conditions exist in the lower and mid elevations.   Stumps, rocks, and very slick surfaces require careful travel today.

Special Announcements

If you are headed out in the backcountry today (and have a smart phone) consider participating in this very interesting research project: “Understanding Travel Behavior in Avalanche Terrain: A Crowdsourced Approach“.  Researchers from Montana State University are looking for data sets worldwide and we can help provide some valuable AK data!

Mon, January 26th, 2015
Alpine
Above 2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
1 - Low
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
0 - No Rating
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Normal Caution
    Normal Caution
Normal Caution
Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.
More info at Avalanche.org

Spring like conditions exist in the higher elevations.  With a lack of concerning weak layers in the snowpack comes a very low likelihood of triggering anything other than very shallow loose snow avalanches today.

Loose Snow Avalanches 

Yesterday my partner and I were able to get the 2” of surface snow moving in terrain over 40 degrees.  Volume of these sluffs were very low and moved at medium speed.  This made sluff management simple.  It is worth paying attention to your sluff if venturing onto large sustained slopes containing steep rollovers and gullies.  This surface snow will become more loose over the next several days of clear and cold weather.  As such, it will become easier to trigger this thin layer as we move through the week.

Weak surface snow released naturally in steep terrain on Magnum ridge yesterday.  Photo: Fitzgerald

Loosies

Glide Avalanches

Glide cracks are scattered throughout the forecast area.  Glides exist on all aspects between 2,000′-3,000′.  We continue to monitor and track areas with glide cracks.  No new movement or releases were noted yesterday.  Minimize your time under glide cracks, as they can release without the normal warning signs.

As mentioned above, early season conditions between road level and 2,500’ exist.  Slick crusts, especially in well traveled areas are veiled with a dusting of low density snow.  Rocks and stumps may be lurking just below the surface.  On the bright side most small creeks and water sources have frozen over with the recent cold temps.  Take your time moving through these areas today.

Weather
Mon, January 26th, 2015

As high pressure has established itself over a large portion of the state, temperatures have dropped.   Ridgetop stations have averaged in the single digits F over the past 24 hours.   Winds have been light out of the North.   No new precipitation has fallen.

Today expect similar conditions, with clear, cold and calm being the theme for the day.   Ridgetop temperatures will remain in the single digits F and winds will be very light out of the North.

The extended outlook is showing a continuation of this pattern until at least Thursday.   Low pressure systems from the South and West will attempt to push up into the region later in the week.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 3 0 0 31
Summit Lake (1400′) -4 0 0 7
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 4 0 0 23

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′) 0 WNW 7 18
Seattle Ridge (2400′) 0 VAR 6 26
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.