Tuesday, December 23rd 2014 6:05 am by Graham Predeger
ARCHIVED ADVISORY - All advisories expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
There is a MODERATE avalanche danger today in alpine areas above 2,500’. The odds of triggering an avalanche are on the decline as we are now a week out from the end of our last storm. Given the persistent nature of the weak layer/ slab combo (1 – 3' slab) that we know exists in much of the advisory area, this is a “scary” MODERATE situation and if an avalanche initiates it has the potential to propagate far and wide across entire slopes. Keep this last point in mind if travelling in the backcountry today and exercise safe travel protocol both on the skin up and the ski down.
Below 2,500’ the danger is LOW for initiating an avalanche though anything triggered from higher elevations does have the potential to run into this elevation band. Again, safe travel protocol and situational awareness with other groups will be key today.
We all need to collectively ask Santa for snow for Xmas because below 1,000’ there is unfortunately still not enough coverage to issue a danger rating.
|Show the Complete North American Avalanche Danger Scale|
|Travel Advice: Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.|
|Travel Advice: Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.|
Do you have a smartphone capable of downloading an app? Of course you do, its almost 2015! Click here for info on how to participate in this very interesting research project: "Understanding Travel Behavior in Avalanche Terrain: A Crowdsourced Approach". Researchers from Montana State University are looking for data sets worldwide and we can help provide some valuable AK data!
Our current problem can be described as low probability/ high consequence. The likelihood of waking up this documented layer of buried surface hoar that we’ve been talking about the last few days is waning as time ticks by and temperatures drop. However if one were to find the right trigger point (shallow areas in the slab or slope convexities are the likely areas) on a slope the resulting avalanche could be quite large. We have a hard time classifying this type of problem using the North American Avalanche Danger Scale because it doesn’t totally capture this low likelihood/ high consequence scenario with any one color.
Colors aside, it’ll be important today to travel through the backcountry with heightened awareness. Ensure good spacing between parties and individuals when ascending steep terrain; one person at a time on the slope; plan out and communicate escape routes and safety zones; ensure safe zones are safe. Keep in mind that with this avalanche problem, potential exists for a slope to avalanche wall-to-wall or even connect slopes through shallow bands of rock.
As mentioned in the bottom line, this is a “scary” MODERATE avalanche problem and though our snowpack is gaining strength, surface hoar once buried accounts for more avalanche accidents than any other weak layer.
Calm weather dominated the eastern Turnagain arm zone yesterday. After a light morning drizzle deposited a very thin crust on the snow surface up to about 1,500’ the skies began to break and visibility improve. Ridgetop winds were in the single digits from the east with temperatures hovering around 32 degrees at 1,000’.
We may continue to see a few snow showers through the day as instability in our region weakens with an advancing ridge moving in from the west. This will shift winds to a northwesterly direction where we may see gusts into the mid-teens or low 20’s mph today. Temperatures at 1,000’ will linger right around the freezing mark. We may also see fog development today and into tomorrow-in low-lying areas around the highway.
Looking out toward Xmas it appears that south-central AK will be influenced by westerly flow as a dominant low-pressure system in the western Aleutians tracks east toward the mainland. Expect temperatures to slowly decline and periods of light snow thru the holiday.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am - 6am)
|Temp Avg (F)||Snow (in)||Water (in)||Snow Depth (in)|
|Center Ridge (1880')||29||1||.1||28|
|Summit Lake (1400')||24||0||0||4|
|Alyeska Mid (1700')||32||1||.1||21|
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am - 6am)
|Temp Avg (F)||Wind Dir||Wind Avg (mph)||Wind Gust (mph)|
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (this advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).
Riding status is not associated with avalanche danger. An area will be open to motorized use in accordance to the Forest Management Plan when snow coverage is adequate to protect underlying vegetation. Backcountry hazards including avalanche hazard are always present regardless of the open status of motorized use areas.
(Updated: Jan 13, 2019 )
|AREA||STATUS||WEATHER AND RIDING CONDITIONS|
|Twentymile:||Closed||Closed. Forest Service is monitoring conditions.|
|Lost Lake Trail:||Open||Please stay on trail to avoid resource damage through forested areas.|
|Primrose Trail:||Open||Please stay on trail to avoid resource damage through forested areas.|
|Resurrection Pass Trail:||Closed||Closed for the 2018/19 season. Next season will be open to motorized use.|
|South Fork Snow River Corridor:||Open|
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